At this stage in the conflict, the US, Europe, and Gulf Arab states have downgraded their objectives. This poses the question of whether their respective aims remain in alignment. On first analysis, it appears not. The priority of the US is disengagement, whereas Europe wants more than anything else a return of refugees to Syria in suitable conditions and the prospect of a political solution.
The Gulf countries, meanwhile, appear motivated by the concern—or rather the illusion—of conceding to Iranian and Turkish influence. The risk, or rather, the situation in which we already find ourselves, is that the Russians and Syrian regime will further their objectives in the absence of a common strategy against Assad. As the Assad regime bypasses sanctions by transforming itself into a narco-state , the situation is slipping away from the American, European, and Gulf actors.
And, if they remain divided, none will achieve their respective objectives. This consideration alone should spur them to reestablish close consultation and coordinated action in the spirit outlined above.
Furthermore, decision-makers must be reminded incessantly of this simple fact: if the Assad regime ultimately prevails, it will resume its habit of destabilizing the region, where terrorism will find fertile terrain for a new surge.
There is at least one common factor between Syria and Afghanistan: just as the Taliban has not changed once it took back power, the Assad regime will not change once its power is affirmed. Joshua Landis, a Syria expert and professor at Oklahoma University, summed it up in simple terms.
The rebel groups that remain have been pushed to the margins of Syria. The rebel militias," he argues, "still have some teeth in defence, but cannot mount a credible offensive against Assad's military. Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, and another close watcher of Syria, has a slightly more cautious assessment.
But having said that, he argues that "it would be inaccurate to suggest Assad had won the war. He's simply avoided losing it. If that goal is to ever be met, we're talking years at least," he explained. But the crucial take-away from all this is that Syria is entering a new phase of conflict. The territorial defeat of IS, says Charles Lister, "will throw an awful lot of potential sources of hostility up into the air and nobody really knows right now how they'll land".
What is emerging is a new strategic map with Syria divided into different zones: One controlled by the Assad regime with the support of Russia and Iran , another controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces an amalgam of Kurdish, Arab and other groups supported by the US , and others run by various elements of the Syrian opposition, backed to varying degrees by Turkey and Jordan.
Having helped Assad restore his control over a significant part of the Syrian population, Moscow has also manoeuvred itself into holding the best cards in the putative diplomatic end-game. As Joshua Landis told me, the Astana peace process, led by the Russians, "is the only one worth anything at the moment. Everyone knows this will not happen. Every year of the conflict has seen an exponential growth in refugees.
In July , there were , refugees. One year later, there were 1. That tripled by the end of Today there are 5. It's the worst exodus since the Rwandan genocide 27 years ago. More than 6. They live in informal settlements, crowded in with extended family or sheltering in damaged or abandoned buildings.
Some people survived the horrors of multiple displacements, besiegement, hunger and disease and fled to areas where they thought they would be safe, only to find themselves caught up in the crossfire once again. Around 6. More than 1. Nearly 3. The short answer: no. Most Syrian refugee families are struggling to settle in unfamiliar urban communities or have been forced into informal rural environments.
They seek shelter in unfinished buildings, sometimes without proper kitchens or bathrooms, or stay in public buildings like schools or mosques. Others stay with relatives, sometimes even strangers, who welcome them in to their homes. Azraq, a camp opened in April , is carefully designed to provide a sense of community and security, with steel caravans instead of tents, a camp supermarket and organized "streets" and "villages.
But many families feel trapped, crowded and even farther from any sense of home, so they seek shelter in nearby towns. Iraq has set up a few camps to house the influx of refugees who arrived in , but the majority of families are living in urban areas. And in Lebanon, the government has no official camps for refugees, so families establish makeshift camps or find shelter in derelict, abandoned buildings.
In Turkey, the majority of refugees are trying to survive and find work, despite the language barrier, in urban communities. Some Syrians know people in neighboring countries who they can stay with. But many host families were already struggling on meager incomes and do not have the room or finances to help as the crisis drags on. Refugees find shelter wherever they can.
Our teams have seen families living in rooms with no heat or running water, in abandoned chicken coops and in storage sheds. Refugees often land in host countries without all their identification, which has either been destroyed or left behind. Without the right documents in host countries, refugees can be evicted from housing, be unable to access medical care, education or most often, just be afraid to leave their homes.
Without these documents, we see many refugees resort to negative coping strategies, including child labor, early marriage and engagement in unsafe work. The lack of clean water and sanitation in crowded, makeshift settlements is an urgent concern.
To add to the problems of the Jordanian royal family, demonstrators have been taking to the streets in mass protests over the kingdom's economic problems and plans to tax its citizens. A strong offensive against these remaining border territories is bound to send a new wave of refugees fleeing in the only direction they can — the Jordanian border.
Internationally, no-one wants to see Jordan destabilise — least of all Israel, which is already in short supply of friendly neighbours. But Mr Lister said, with the mediation of Russia, the Jordanian government has "already flipped" and has taken on a "better the devil you know" mentality towards Mr Assad on the condition that Russian military police control any recaptured border areas.
Israel's main concern is the presence of Iranian and Hezbollah troops on Syrian soil. Syria is technically at war with Israel over control of the Golan Heights, but a ceasefire has largely held since the s. Last week, Israel reached an agreement with Russia to allow Syrian government troops to return to the border to combat the rebels on the condition that no Iranian or Hezbollah forces will be stationed in that area.
But tensions continue to heighten between Israel and Iran with reports of growing Iranian missile bases in Lebanon and Syria. Israel carried out a wave of airstrikes against Iranian forces in Syria last month.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed disapproval of Iran using its position in Syria to carry out an anti-Israel agenda and called for "all foreign troops" to withdraw from Syria. But Iran responded with anger and defiance. Over seven years after the people of Daraa took to the streets, taking back the embattled city — dubbed 'the cradle of the revolution' — would not only consolidate regime power in the south but it would hand Mr Assad a symbolic victory over his enemies.
Mr Wagner believes the Daraa offensive will essentially be "the last act of the war" in Syria. Speaking on state television last week, Mr Assad said he expected the war to be over in "less than a year", but he also repeated his vow to claim back "every inch" of Syria.
The same day, Syrian government airstrikes in the north claimed the lives of more than 50 people in rebel-held Idlib. While it seems inevitable that Mr Assad will reclaim Daraa, ousting the Turkish military and its Syrian allies in the north and defeating the rebel fighters who control Idlib does not look likely to happen any time soon.
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